Finance Blog number 1

Pakistani media have reported a name they say is that of the CIA’s station chief in Islamabad.

The weekend television and newspaper reports follow last Monday’s U.S. raid that killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, and badly soured relations between the two countries.

A spokesman for Pakistani intelligence declined to comment Monday.

It’s the second time in six months that an alleged name of the CIA station chief in Islamabad has been reported in the Pakistani media. The Associated Press has learned that the name being reported is incorrect.

In December, the CIA pulled its then-station chief out of the country after a name alleged to be his surfaced in Pakistan’s media. Pakistani officials have denied unmasking the previous station chief.

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European inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in two and a half years and confidence in the economic outlook declined as surging energy prices threatened to undermine growth.

Inflation in the 17-nation euro region quickened to 2.8 percent in April from 2.7 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today in an initial estimate. Economists had expected inflation to remain unchanged, according to the median of 34 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. An index of executive and consumer sentiment slipped to 106.2 from 107.3 in March, the sharpest drop since May 2010, and unemployment held at 9.9 percent, separate reports showed.

Crude-oil prices have soared 38 percent in the past six months, pushing inflation above the European Central Bank’s 2 percent limit and prompting policy makers to raise interest rates this month for the first time in almost three years. At the same time, higher raw-material costs are weighing on consumption and company profits, just as governments across the region cut spending to narrow budget deficits.

“The inflation numbers support the view that the ECB will deliver another interest rate hike before long,” said Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam. “Growth was exceptionally strong in the first quarter, but will slow from here. The labor market is still very sluggish and paired with inflation that’s not good for purchasing power.”

German Output

The euro was little changed after the data were released, trading at $1.4867 at 11:31 a.m. in Brussels, up 0.2%.

European services and manufacturing growth unexpectedly accelerated in April, driven by higher output in Germany and France, the region’s largest economies. Still, European investor confidence declined as faster inflation and higher interest rates may hurt the recovery. Euro-region growth will slow to 1.6 percent this year from 1.8 percent in 2010, the European Commission forecast last month.

A gauge of sentiment among euro-region manufacturers slipped to 5.8 in April from 6.7 in the previous month, the European Commission said today. Services confidence dropped to 10.4 from 10.8 and an index of consumer confidence eased to minus 11.6 from minus 10.6. Sentiment among builders rose to minus 24.2 from minus 25.4.

Debt Crisis

Capacity utilization rose to 81.3 percent in the second quarter from 80.3 percent in the previous three months, the commission said.

As governments from Ireland to Spain cut spending to contain a sovereign debt crisis, eroding consumer and investment spending, European companies have relied on faster-growing markets to bolster sales. Volkswagen AG (VOW), Europe’s biggest automaker, this week reported record operating profit in the first quarter on stronger demand from China.

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Vietnam’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2008, putting pressure on the government to tighten policy further after almost doubling a key interest rate in less than six months.

Consumer prices climbed 17.51 percent in April from a year earlier, according to figures released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi today. The rate is the highest since December 2008 and compares with the 13.89 percent pace last month. Prices rose 3.32 percent in April from March.

Policy makers have boosted the repurchase rate to 13 percent from 7 percent in November and cut the target for 2011 credit growth to tame inflation and regain investor confidence in the government’s ability to prevent the economy from overheating. Still, food and commodities make up a large share of household spending and increases in gasoline and power costs will fuel inflation, Standard & Poor’s said this month.

“Inflation shows little signs of responding to monetary and fiscal austerity just yet,” said Bill Stoops, chief investment officer at Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon Capital. “Government policies to slow inflation operate with a lag effect.”

The inflation rate may peak at almost 20 percent before easing to about 13 percent by year-end, according to U.K.-listed Vietnam Property Fund Ltd. (VPF), which is managed by Dragon Capital.

The repurchase rate at which the central bank performs open market operations is Vietnam’s key policy rate, according to Santitarn Sathirathai, a Singapore-based economist at Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), which expects an increase to 14 percent by the end of the year.

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South Korea’s inflation will probably accelerate more than previously forecast while economic growth stays in line with expectations, the Bank of Korea said.

Consumer prices may increase 3.9 percent in 2011, faster than the previous estimate of 3.5 percent, the central bank forecast in a statement in Seoul today. Gross domestic product is projected to expand 4.5 percent this year and 4.8 percent in 2012 after a 6.2 percent gain in 2010, it said. The bank predicted in December growth of 4.7 percent for next year.

Accelerating inflation spurred by economic growth and higher oil and food prices may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates three more times this year, according to Barclays Plc. Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo said yesterday he will take monetary policy action “neither too slowly nor too fast,” after keeping the benchmark rate unchanged.

The increased inflation forecast “is a hawkish signal that reinforces our call for more rate hikes this year,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based economist at Credit Agricole CIB. He said he predicts at least two more interest-rate increases this year, and a strengthening in the won to 1,050 to the dollar by the end of the year.

The won rose 0.1 percent to 1,092.85 per dollar as of 9:18 a.m. in Seoul, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg, while the Kospi stock index gained 0.1 percent.

Oil prices

The central bank also estimated the economy grew 1.5 percent during the first quarter and expanded 4.1 percent from a year earlier. Economic growth was bolstered by exports. Overseas shipments jumped 30.3 percent to record-high $48.6 billion in March, according to a government report on April 1.

Consumer inflation in Asia’s fourth-largest economy will accelerate to 4.5 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund projected this week. It forecast that economic growth will slow to 4.2 percent next year from 4.5 percent this year.

The threat of further oil-price increases has become a “key downside risk” for global growth, according to the IMF. Oil will rise 36 percent in 2011 to $107.16 a barrel, based on the average prices of U.K. Brent, Dubai and West Texas Intermediate crudes, the IMF said. The January forecast was for oil at $89.50 a barrel this year.

Inflation Ceiling

The Bank of Korea itself projects oil prices to be at $105 per barrel this year, compared with its previous estimate of $87. Crude oil for May delivery fell $3.67 to $106.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, the lowest settlement since March 30.

Higher oil and food prices have pushed consumer inflation beyond the central bank’s 4 percent ceiling every month since the start of the year, prompting the bank to raise rates by a quarter of a percentage point each in January and March. Consumer price climbed 4.7 percent from a year earlier in March, the biggest increase since October 2008.

Governor Kim said high inflation will likely persist in coming months and that core prices excluding oil and food may gain faster than consumer prices by the end of this year.

“We’re determined to normalize interest rates,” Kim said yesterday after keeping the target rate at 3 percent. “We will move ahead neither too slowly nor too fast, and in a forward- looking manner, as we’re recovering from a crisis.” The central bank began increasing the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate from a record-low 2 percent last July.

Jobless Rate

The Korean central bank may increase its target rate by 25 basis points in May, July and September, Wai Ho Leong, a Singapore-based regional economist at Barclays Plc, said yesterday in a report.

The bank today also forecast that the jobless rate will decline to 3.4 percent next year from 3.6 percent this year. The nation’s current-account surplus is expected to shrink to $11 billion in 2011 from $28.2 billion last year because of surge in oil price.

South Korea’s unemployment rate stayed at a one-year high in March as an economic recovery encouraged people to seek jobs.

The jobless rate was at 4 percent, unchanged from February, Statistics Korea said in Gwacheon today, citing seasonally adjusted figures.

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The French prime minister says France would support military action against Moammar Gadhafi’s Libya within a matter of hours if the U.N. Security Council approves it.

Francois Fillon says “time is of the essence” and “the threat of Col. Gadhafi shows how urgent it is that the international community mobilizes itself.”

Fillon’s comments on France-2 Television Thursday came just hours before a scheduled Security Council vote on a resolution that would impose a no-fly zone over Libya.

The resolution would also authorize “all necessary measures” to protect civilians from attacks by Gadhafi’s forces.

France and Britain have been among the biggest proponents of a no-fly zone over Libya and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe was arriving in New York for the debate.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP’s earlier story is below.

UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ The U.N. Security Council scheduled a vote Thursday on a resolution that would impose a no-fly zone over Libya and authorize “all necessary measures” to protect civilians from attacks by Moammar Gadhafi’s forces.

France’s U.N. Ambassador Gerard Araud said he expected more than one of the council’s 15 members to abstain when the vote took place at 6 p.m. EDT (2300 GMT), but council diplomats said they did not expect the resolution to be vetoed.

The resolution needs nine “yes” votes and no veto by a permanent member to be adopted.

Russia and China, which have veto power, have expressed doubts about the United Nations and other outside powers using force against Gadhafi, and diplomats said other council nations reacted cautiously, including Germany, India, Brazil and South Africa.

Even if all six countries abstained, the resolution would still have the minimum nine “yes” votes.

The United States joined the resolution’s initial supporters _ Britain, France and Lebanon _ not only in pushing for a speedy vote but in pressing for action beyond setting up a no-fly zone in order to protect civilians from air, land and sea attacks by Gadhafi’s fighters.

The text that will be put to a vote would “establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians,” diplomats said. It also would authorize U.N. member states to take “all necessary measures” to protect civilians under threat of attack, while excluding an occupation force, the diplomats said.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe flew to New York Thursday to press the case for speedy Security Council approval.

A French diplomatic official in Paris said military action could follow “in a very short period of time.”

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the issue publicly, said France foresees a “coalition of the willing” that would include support from Arab states but would not involve a ground operation.

French officials have said Arab countries’ support could come, for example, by providing use of their air bases, the official said.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told reporters in Tunisia on Thursday that a U.N. no-fly zone over Libya would require action to protect the planes and pilots, “including bombing targets like the Libyan defense systems.”

Council members agreed to call a vote after a close-door meeting to discuss reactions to the draft sent to capitals overnight. It was hammered out during more than eight hours of sometimes heated negotiations on Wednesday.

With Gadhafi’s forces intensifying attacks and heading toward opposition-held Benghazi, Libya’s second-largest city, supporters of the resolution have been pressing for speedy council action.

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said late Wednesday the Obama administration is “fully focused on the urgency and the gravity” of the situation in Libya.

“We are interested in a broad range of actions that will effectively protect civilians and increase the pressure on the Gadhafi regime to halt the killing and to allow the Libyan people to express themselves in their aspirations for the future freely and peacefully,” Rice told reporters. “Those include discussion of a no-fly zone, but the U.S. view is that … a no-fly zone has inherent limitations in terms of protection of civilians at immediate risk.”

According to a council diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were private, Rice said the U.S. will not act without Security Council authorization, does not want to put U.S. ground troops into Libya, and insists on broad international participation, especially by Arab states.

President Barack Obama and his top national security aides had been cautious with calls for a no-fly zone, which the Pentagon described as a step tantamount to war. The U.S. fears involvement in Libya could further strain its already stretched military and entangle the country in an expensive and messy conflict in another Muslim country.

The council diplomat said Rice told the ambassadors the Obama administration believes there is a significant risk of major atrocities by Gadhafi’s forces in Benghazi and wants the council to do everything possible to prevent that and protect civilians.

Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, said Thursday that even as Gadhafi’s forces advanced, there would be no talks with his regime. He called the situation on the ground “extremely worrying.”

Asked what the EU would do if Gadhafi’s forces retook Benghazi, Mann said, “We have always said all along that we are planning for all options.”

He also said the EU was looking to the U.N. Security Council before making further decisions.

Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, whose government had expressed misgivings about a no-fly zone, proposed that the council vote first on a resolution calling for a cease-fire in Libya.

Rice told reporters a majority of council members did not support a separate cease-fire resolution but said that a call for a cease-fire could be incorporated in the no-fly resolution.

France and Britain failed to win support for a no-fly zone during a two-day meeting of Group of Eight foreign ministers in Paris earlier Tuesday and the G-8’s final communique did not mention a flight ban, leaving any action to the Security Council.

The Security Council on Feb. 26 imposed an arms embargo on Libya and ordered all countries to freeze assets and ban travel for Gadhafi and some close associates. It also referred the regime’s deadly crackdown on protesters to the International Criminal Court, for an investigation of possible crimes against humanity.

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AT&T Inc.’s CEO Randall Stephenson on Tuesday expressed frustration with the way applications are sold to smart phone users, saying customers should be able to buy an application once and have it work across many devices.

As an alternative to today’s most popular application stores, controlled by Silicon Valley heavyweights Apple Inc. and Google Inc., Stephenson touted an emerging system that lets carriers like AT&T sell apps directly to users.

AT&T Inc. was, until last week, the sole U.S. carrier for the iPhone, which sells apps that run only on Apple devices.

“You purchase an app for one operating system, and if you want it on another device or platform, you have to buy it again,” Stephenson said in a keynote speech at the world’s largest mobile-phone trade show in Barcelona, Spain. “That’s not how our customers expect to experience this environment bad credit payday loans.”

Stephenson highlighted a new standard for Web software, HTML 5, which will allow applications to run on different devices, and the Wholesale Applications Community, which is an “app store” set up by carriers as a counterweight to app stores run by The Wholesale Applications Community announced its commercial launch Monday. From the point of view of software developers, it acts as one app store. The apps are then sold by a variety of phone companies around the world, in stores that carry their own brands.

There are as yet few phones that support WAC applications, but LG Electronics Inc., Samsung Electronics Co., Sony Ericsson, Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. have committed to making them.

The four biggest U.S. wireless carriers

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called a summit of euro-area leaders next month on economic competitiveness as they sought to bridge differences over how to end the region’s debt crisis.

The German and French leaders announced a joint push for a “pact for competitiveness” to flank more immediate steps — still the subject of dispute — to shore up Greece and Ireland and prevent fiscal woes from swamping Portugal and Spain.

The two didn’t say whether Germany and France have resolved disagreements over the expanded use of the 440 billion-euro ($600 billion) rescue fund for debt-strapped countries.

“The year 2010 was a year of trials for the euro,” Merkel said at a joint briefing with Sarkozy at a meeting of European leaders in Brussels today. Germany and France are firmly committed that 2011 will be the year of new confidence for the euro.”

No date was set for the 17-nation euro summit. It could come as late as the eve of the next scheduled meeting of all 27 European Union leaders on March 24, a French official said.

The euro region’s two leading economic powers are at odds over how to retool the rescue fund, with Germany opposing buybacks that would enable high-debt countries to buy their own bonds at a discount on the market, according to three European officials involved in the talks who declined to be identified because the deliberations remain private personal loan for poor credit.

Instead, the focus is on mobilizing the full potential of the fund, now able to lend only about 250 billion euros due to collateral rules that underpin its AAA credit rating.

Euro Dips

Signs of discord helped snuff out a three-day rally in European bond markets yesterday and knocked the euro off a three-month high, as investors questioned when Europe will come up with an anti-crisis formula.

The euro fell for a third day today, weakening as much as 0.5 percent to $1.3568.

The competitiveness proposal calls for debt-limitation rules in national constitutions, a revival of EU plans to harmonize the corporate-tax base, the abolition of wage indexation and promises to clean up the banking system.

Only the principles have been worked out so far, the French official told reporters, ruling out a further increase in the French retirement age after it was lifted to 62 from 60 last year.

“We are working together, Germany and France, hand in hand with an absolute determination to support the euro, to defend the euro, which we see as a major element in the European project,” Sarkozy said.

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Europe’s new risk watchdog probably lacks the teeth to avert the region’s next financial crisis, economists say.

The European Systemic Risk Board, which aims to identify and warn of brewing risks in the financial system, may fail to prevent future imbalances as it doesn’t have any legal power to enforce action, according to economists at ING Group, Barclays Capital and ABN Amro.

The 65-member board meets for the first time in Frankfurt today. Its chairman, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, and vice chairman, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, will give a press conference at 3:30 p.m.

“If you’re looking for an institution that will save us from the next crisis, this is certainly not it,” said Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Group in Brussels. “It’s just another talking shop.”

The European Union is trying to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis that followed the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and resulted in European governments setting aside more than $5 trillion to support banks. Part of a wider regulatory overhaul, the ESRB is similar to the Financial Stability Oversight Council in the U.S.

“If they come up with a convincing case pointing to deficiencies in any particular market or jurisdiction, it will be very hard for the authorities concerned to ignore that warning,” said Bernhard Speyer, head of financial market regulation research at Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt cash advance payday loan. “I am fairly confident as to the quality of the output of the ESRB.”

While the body will monitor macro-prudential risks, it may turn its attention to single institutions deemed systemically important. It has yet to identify those institutions or say what methodology it will use in its risk analysis.

Public Disclosure

The ESRB has been given discretion over whether to inform the public of any warnings it makes on a case-by-case basis. Lawmakers have allowed the body to keep warnings secret if it thinks any judgment would unsettle markets, even though the legislation says that “public disclosure can foster compliance.”

ECB council member Athanasios Orphanides of Cyprus said the ESRB could recommend actions similar to those taken by the Cypriot central bank in 2007, when it tightened the loan-to- value ratios on real estate loans.

“That decision made our system more resilient” and is “an example of the recommendations I foresee the ESRB will consider making,” he said in an interview on Jan. 14.

Still, in the absence of clarity about the ESRB’s powers and activities, banks have reacted with indifference to the arrival of the new body, according to James Nixon, co-chief European economist at Societe Generale in London.

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The U.S. trade deficit edged down to the lowest point in 10 months as exports, helped by a weaker dollar and rising foreign demand, climbed to the highest level in more than two years.

The Commerce Department says that the trade deficit narrowed to $38.3 billion in November, down 0.3 percent from October’s revised $38.4 billion deficit.

Through the first 11 months of 2010, the deficit is running at an annual rate of $500.4 billion, 33.5 percent higher than in 2009 _ a year when the deep recession cut into Americans’ appetite for imports.

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Jan. 2011: $1.25 million gift to St. Louis Beacon Oct. 2010: $5 million to City Academy Sept. 2010: $2 million to St. Louis Art Museum Dec. 2009: $30 million to Danforth Center for Faith & Politics Dec. 2008: $10 million to Washington University’s Hope Center Sept. 2005: $10 million to Donald Danforth Plant Science Center (with promise to match additional $40 million) Dec. 2004: $1 million to Sustainable Neighborhoods Small Business Loan and Gap Financing Program Jan payday loan. 2003: $117 million to Donald Danforth Plant Science Center 1999: Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, $60 million (over 10 years) Nov. 1997: $100 million to Washington University 1986: $100 million to Washington University

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