Finance Blog number 1

Charlie Dooley may not like the idea of a casino in north St. Louis County, but that’s not stopping the people who want to build one.

The day after the St. Louis County executive made public his opposition to the proposal to build a $350 million casino just south of the Columbia Bottoms Preservation Area, the developers’ attorney said his group plans to plow ahead regardless.

The site, in Spanish Lake along the Mississippi, is a good spot for Missouri’s 13th casino, said Ed Griesedieck, lawyer and spokesman for North County Development LLC. And it’s in a part of the region that sorely needs the jobs a casino would bring.

"Mr. Dooley spells out that he has a vague notion that people don’t want this," Griesedieck said Wednesday. "I think that comment is not in touch with the tens of thousands of out-of-work workers in that area."

Local environmentalists have argued that the project would harm fragile wetlands by the confluence of the Missouri and Mississippi, and on Tuesday, Dooley said he agreed. But Griesedieck notes that the project was previously zoned for industrial use and is not in a conservation area, just near one.

"There needs to be a distinction there," he said.

The project has strong support from labor unions and some elected officials. But it also has met with vocal opposition from various corners.

Dooley presented his stance in a letter to the Missouri Gaming Commission, which will ultimately decide where to put the casino. A "no" vote from the county executive would likely weigh heavily in their thinking.

Griesedieck said his group — which includes Madison County attorney Brad Lakin and Argo Products owner Kenneth Goldstein, among others — will try to prevail on Dooley to change his mind.

"We hope he reconsiders," he said.

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Winners in the first annual Best Bay Area Corporate Counsel Awards were named at an event Wednesday night.

About 400 people attended the awards ceremony at the Westin San Francisco Airport in Millbrae. The program was co-produced by the Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal and the San Francisco Business Times.

The awards honor the in-house lawyers who keep the business world running but who rarely receive public recognition. Finalists were named in 10 categories in January.

“During this process we’ve learned firsthand the numerous roles these attorneys play at their respective companies,” said James MacGregor, publisher of the Business Journal.

“We look forward to recognizing more corporate counsel in the years ahead,” added Mary Huss, publisher of the Business Times.

Nominees were required to have been employed full-time by a company in the Bay Area and to have held their current positions for at least one year.

An independent panel of Bay Area lawyers helped choose the finalists, based on material submitted through the nomination process.

James Strother of Wells Fargo & Co. was presented a lifetime achievement award free credit scores.

Winners in the other categories are:

• Best General Counsel — Private Company: Hilary Krane, Levi Strauss & Co.

• Best General Counsel — Public Company (Annual Revenue Less Than $1 Billion a Year): Mary Doyle, Palm Inc.

• Best General Counsel — Public Company (Annual Revenue More Than $1 Billion a Year): Jim Brelsford, SanDisk Corp.

• Best IP Lawyer: Anirma Gupta, Intuit Inc.

• Diversity Champion: James Potter, Del Monte Foods Co.

• Best Labor & Employment Lawyer: Roxane Marenberg, Cisco Systems Inc.

• Best Biotech / Health Care Lawyer: Sandra Wells, Affymetrix Inc.

• Best Solo General Counsel: Rebecca Hlebasko, Bridge Housing Corp.

• Best International Lawyer: Harry Turner, Renesas Technology America Inc.

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The Bank of England may this week pause its 200 billion-pound ($317 billion) bond purchase plan and keep open the option of expanding it further as officials assess if the economic recovery is too anemic to last.

The bank will halt spending with newly created money for the first time since it began the so-called quantitative easing program in March last year, according to the median of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The central bank will release its decision on Feb. 4 at 12 p.m. in London.

Governor Mervyn King is juggling the threat of resurgent inflation against the risk of a relapse in growth after gross domestic product barely rose in the fourth quarter. Officials must also gauge if the economy may need more stimulus to weather reductions in the record budget deficit after the general election, which is due by June.

“I would be surprised if they say they’re going to stop” altogether, Patrick Minford, a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher and now an economics professor at Cardiff University, said in an interview. “This could be quite risky, particularly when governments are going to be taking rebalancing action on fiscal policy. The issue is whether the economy is strong enough to take withdrawal of quantitative easing.”

The pound fell against the dollar to its lowest level this year today, and traded at $1.5858 at 10:52 a.m. in London.

The economy expanded 0.1 percent in the last three months of 2009 as service and manufacturing businesses expanded just enough to end Britain’s deepest recession on record.

Uneven Recovery

Recent data have suggested an uneven recovery. Mortgage approvals unexpectedly dropped in December for the first time in more than a year, Bank of England showed today. Manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 15 years, according to a report from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics.

“It’s certainly possible that the economy needs more policy support in the future,” said Jonathan Loynes, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. “When you have a big fiscal tightening coming, which is likely from either party, unless you’ve got some underlying momentum in the economy you may want to loosen monetary policy further.”

Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party has trailed the Conservative opposition for two years in voter opinion polls as both parties wage a campaign on plans to cut the budget deficit. The Conservatives led Labour by 11 points, according to an ICM Research Ltd. poll that finished on Jan. 24.

Budget Deficit

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said on Jan. 26 that the government will take steps to trim the 15.7 billion- pound deficit once the recovery gains traction. Cameron has pledged to start budget cuts immediately after the election.

While the prospect of a public spending squeeze looms, the global recovery may still buoy the economy as companies raise overseas sales and take advantage of the pound’s 17 percent drop on a trade-weighted basis since 2007. The Confederation of British Industry said today its index of export orders for small and medium-sized manufacturers rose to a two-year high in the quarter through January.

The pound’s weakness has stoked consumer prices, complicating the Bank of England’s task. The inflation rate jumped 1 percentage point in December, the most on record, to reach 2.9 percent. The central bank’s target is 2 percent.

Inflation Outlook

King said last month that inflation may accelerate further, though policy makers will look through that jump as they focus on the risk that it will slow below their goal because of slack in the economy created by the recession.

The case for adding to the bond-purchase program may strengthen if a pause in the plan results in a jump in bond yields, said Kit Juckes, chief economist at ECU Group Plc in London. He said a 50 basis-point increase in 10-year bond yields to about 4.5 percent may be “inevitable but not disastrous,” though a jump to 6 percent “would scare me.’

“The end of QE will be a pretty short-lived end if it’s really damaging gilt yields,” Juckes said. “QE is working, and pausing makes some sense to let it continue to work, but you really can’t rule out them coming back with more. This is a pathetic little recovery however you look at it.”

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French business confidence unexpectedly climbed in December to its highest level since March 2008 as Europe’s third-largest economy extended its recovery from the recession.

The Bank of France’s Business Sentiment Indicator for manufacturing advanced to 101 from 99 in November, according to an e-mailed statement today. Economists had expected the measure to remain unchanged, according to the median of five forecasts gathered by Bloomberg News.

The Paris-based central bank said the data suggest economic expansion of 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from its previous estimate. Declines in gauges for capacity utilization, total orders and production countered an improvement in order books, the central bank said.

“Businesses still remain skeptical and want to see what happens in the economy,” said Laurence Boone, chief French economist at Barclays Capital in Paris.

Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said last week that the government hopes to raise its growth forecast to at least 1 percent for 2010 from 0.75 percent as the recovery gains pace.

Industrial production grew more than twice what economists expected in November, gaining 1.1 percent from the previous month, statistics agency Insee said yesterday.

French businesses are benefiting from the economy’s return to growth in the second quarter of 2009 as well as government stimulus programs, even as increases in the euro and unemployment threaten the expansion.

On Jan. 6, Sodexo, the world’s second-biggest catering company, reported a smaller first-quarter revenue decline than some analysts expected and confirmed its annual profit target.

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The initial lineup has been announced for the annual Country Thunder concert in Florence, scheduled for April 14-17:

• April 14: The Grascals, Eric Church and Neal McCoy.
• April 15: Collin Raye, Jo Dee Messina, Gary Allan and Miranda Lambert.
• April 16: Love & Theft, Trailer Choir, Randy Houser, Big Kenny, Kevin Costner & Modern West and Keith Urban.
• April 17: Jason Jones, Kate & Kacey, Gloriana, Luke Bryan, Willie Nelson and Kid Rock Faxless payday loans.

For a limited time, general admission seats are being sold for $99 for all four days. VIP and reserved seats range from $200 to $500.

Camping sites range from $89 to $159.

For more and to purchase tickets: www.countrythunder.com.

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Retail gasoline prices headed downward in most places to begin one of the country’s busiest travel weeks, with more than 33 million people expected to hit the road for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Americans are remaining closer to home because of anxiety about the economy, and demand for gasoline is weaker now than it was last year at this time.

That is telling because a gallon of gasoline then cost only $1.93 as the economic crisis unfolded in 2008.

Unlike last year, however, gas is not falling sharply and though prices fell overnight, it still cost about $2.64 per gallon on average, according to Department of Energy data and also auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service.

"I think we will see some increases in the spring like we always do," said Fred Rozell, retail pricing director at OPIS. "But at this point I think we’re going to kind of see a status quo for a while."

Gasoline prices were either flat or falling in most places, but rose nearly 4 cents across the Midwest, according to a report Monday from the Energy Information Administration.

Crude prices have remained relatively strong, which has helped keep gas prices well above $2.50. A survey by AAA last weekend found that the number of Americans traveling away from home for Thanksgiving will be up just 2.1 percent this year from 2008.

Crude prices have dragged retail gasoline prices higher throughout the year and rose by 9 cents per barrel on Monday. Benchmark crude for December delivery settled at $77.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude in storage is above normal levels for this time of year and refiners that turn oil into gasoline, jet fuel and diesel are cutting back because demand is so weak.

Valero Energy became the latest to shut down a refinery Friday, the largest U.S. facility shut down so far this year.

That follows other refiners, including Sunoco and Western Refining, who have shut down plants in recent months and laid off almost 1,000 workers.

Refiners say they can’t raise the price of gasoline and jet fuel because people aren’t traveling as much, but they must pay higher prices for crude because of the weak dollar.

Air travel is projected to decline 6.7 percent, or 2.3 million travelers this year compared to 2.5 million in 2008.

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If you expect holiday bargains to get better as Christmas Eve draws near, you may be disappointed this year.

Retailers aren’t as panicked about the upcoming holiday shopping season as they were last year.

That’s bad news for shoppers because this could mean leaner sales, sparsely stocked stores and a run on the best deals for such sought-after items as smartphones, thigh-high boots, side-sling bags and ruffled cardigans.

With this scenario in mind, retail experts said their No. 1 tip for gift shoppers this year is grab what you want, when you see it.

"Merchants got burned badly last year when they were left with a lot of unsold merchandise after Christmas," said George Whalin, retail expert and president and CEO of Retail Management Consultants.

And since the past 10 months have been a sales nightmare for most merchants, amid an ongoing spending slump, sellers have up to 30% less merchandise stocked for the year-end gift-buying season that unofficially kicks off the day after Thanksgiving.

The November-December period is critical for sellers because it can account for as much as 50% or more of retailers’ profits and sales for the full year.

Without the fear of being overstocked, merchants will also be less promotional with holiday goods versus last year in order to preserve their profits.

So don’t expect big red sales signs screaming 50%, 60% or even 70% off right after Black Friday, analysts said.

"This year, the magic point for retailers will probably be 40% off and maybe 50% and another 20% off on clearance items much later in the season," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with market research firm NPD Group.

Will there be a holiday rush?

With the nation’s unemployment rate at its highest level in more than two decades, no one expects Americans to whip up an uninhibited shopping frenzy over holiday gifts.

The National Retail Federation, the industry’s largest trade group, expects holiday sales will decline 1% this year, although that dip would be an improvement over 2008’s 3.4% drop for the season.

Still, some industry watchers say the recent pick-up in monthly sales seen at chain stores, coupled with more than a year of pent-up demand among consumers, could make it hard for many to resist "splurging" a little bit on the seasonal sales that are coming up.

If that happens, it could bring a run on some merchandise in the coming weeks, said Craig Johnson, president of retail consulting group Customer Growth Partners payday cash loan.

If some sellers are caught with product shortfalls, Johnson said they could even sneak in spring merchandise by December to fill any vacant spots in their stores.

"This is not a totally new phenomenon," he said. "We’ve heard rumors that some teen-focused retailers may bring in spring products by mid-December."

Johnson also gave examples of what he expects to be this year’s hot holiday sellers. "Everyone already has a big flatscreen TV," said Johnson, "E-readers, whether it’s [Amazon’s (AMZN, Fortune 500)] Kindle or Barnes & Noble’s Nook e-reader that’s coming out later this year, are going to be hot."

Smartphones and gaming consoles will be top purchases as well, he said. In clothing and accessories, women’s embellished leggings, boots, sweater vests and side-sling handbags will be in big demand, Johnson said.

NPD’s Cohen, has a somewhat different perspective.

"If consumers can’t find something in one store, they will look elsewhere, or online," Cohen said.

Regarding introducing spring products during the winter sales events, Cohen said that it could actually be a smart move by retailers to infuse some newness and freshness into the stores.

"You want to keep consumers coming back to the store. It’s a good way to get holiday gift card [recipients] to come back, too," he said.

Countering Johnson’s predications of holiday hot sellers, Cohen thinks many consumers will shop for traditional gifts.

"It’s back to tradition this year. Sweaters, perfumes, small leather items, music. movies, board games and gift cards," he said.

The single biggest holiday shopping trend, however, will be "fewer people on the shopping list," said Cohen. ‘For those on the bottom of the list, people will be baking cookies."

Talkback: Are you giving more or fewer holiday gifts, and how much do you plan to spend per gift this year versus last year? E-mail your response to realstories@cnnmoney.com and you could be part of an upcoming article. For the CNNMoney.com Comment Policy, click here.  

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Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said unemployment is going to keep rising and should be the main focus for policy makers, and that gains in the stock market indicate investors have been “irrationally exuberant” about a recovery.

“There’s a lot of risk going ahead of some big bumps,” he said today in a Bloomberg Television interview from Istanbul, citing housing, commercial real estate and consumers’ inability to pay off credit cards because of job losses. “There’s a very big risk that markets have been irrationally exuberant.”

The U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, and the unemployment rate reached a 26- year high in September, a Labor Department report last week showed. Joblessness is likely to reach 10 percent by the end of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month.

It’s “pretty clear that the situation will continue to get worse,” Stiglitz said today, citing elements of the jobs report such as the number of people who can’t find a full-time job and the pace at which Americans are dropping out of the labor force.

‘Well Short’

Economic growth this year and next will “fall well short of what we need to stop unemployment from growing,” he said. The likelihood that the U.S. economy will be “out of the woods” before most of the measures in the Obama administration’s stimulus package expire in 2011 is “very small,” he also said.

Employers cut 263,000 workers from payrolls in September, while the jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent from 9.7 percent the prior month, the Labor Department said Oct. 2.

In a separate Bloomberg Television interview today, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Economist Jim O’Neill said the International Monetary Fund meetings in Istanbul are “stuck” in an outdated mentality that doesn’t reflect the rising power of emerging economies following the global financial crisis.

O’Neill also said the dollar probably isn’t the No. 1 concern for U.S. policy makers, and predicted 4.1 percent growth for the global economy next year.

Many countries will be “surprising” in their economic growth in 2010, he said, while adding that there is a potential for more “positive surprises” that could help fuel global expansion.

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Finance ministers from the Group of Seven meet in Istanbul today pushing for a “strong dollar” amid concern its slide will impede their recoveries from the deepest global recession in the postwar era.

“Everyone needs a strong dollar,” French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde told reporters yesterday before leaving for the talks. That sentiment is “not unique to Europe,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty signaled, saying in Istanbul that “the Australians are concerned, we’re concerned in Canada about upward pressure on the Canadian dollar because of the weakness of the U.S. currency.”

Lagarde’s comments came four days after similar remarks from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also has pledged support for a “strong” currency. Flaherty said he expected the G-7 to issue a communique following their meeting, after members earlier debated the need for one.

The dollar’s 14 percent slide this year against a basket of seven currencies since early March threatens economic recoveries outside the U.S. by making their exports more expensive. At the same time, Geithner is being forced to defend the dollar’s status as the world’s sole reserve currency.

Traders Watching

“Market-moving announcements could be forthcoming,” said Geoffrey Yu, a foreign-exchange strategist at UBS AG in London. “We expect to hear renewed commitments to the U.S. strong dollar policy and the European delegation may be tempted to communicate their worries on further rises in the euro.”

The dollar, which tumbled about 10 percent against the euro and yen in the past two quarters, slid further after a government report yesterday showed U.S. job losses accelerated in September. It traded at $1.4578 per euro and 89.77 yen late yesterday in New York.

“We’ll have a chance to discuss this in the coming days,” Lagarde said in Gothenburg, Sweden, yesterday before her departure for Istanbul, referring to the dollar.

G-7 members have discussed whether to break with tradition and not release a communique given that G-20’s leaders did so just a week ago after meeting in Pittsburgh. The G-7 is gathering in Istanbul before next week’s annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and its officials will brief reporters from 6 p.m.

China Intransigence

Limiting the G-7’s scope to reverse the decline in the dollar is the absence of China from its ranks and the G-20’s push for a narrowing of global trade and investment imbalances such as the U empire payday loans.S. current account deficit.

Among policy makers expressing concern about the dollar this week were Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii. He signaled Sept. 29 his government was open to acting to stabilize the foreign-exchange market, and denied he supported a stronger yen. He won’t discuss the yen’s gains at the G-7, Kyodo News reported yesterday.

Canon Inc., Japan’s biggest maker of office equipment, says every 1 yen appreciation against the dollar will lower its second-half operating profit by 4.2 billion yen ($47 billion). The company based its profit forecast of 110 billion yen on the assumption the yen would average 95 to the dollar in the last six months of the business year.

Lipsky on Currencies

Still, John Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, told Bloomberg Television yesterday that at present “there is not a problem in broad terms of valuation of the principle currencies.”

Flaherty two days ago pushed China to let its yuan appreciate “more quickly” after keeping it little changed against the dollar for more than a year.

That view was echoed yesterday by IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss Kahn, who said he still views the yuan as “undervalued.” The IMF was last week tasked by the G-20 with monitoring its members’ efforts to even out the world economy.

China has frequently ignored campaigns by the G-7 for a more flexible exchange rate. It took almost two years to heed a request to loosen a currency peg with the dollar, only doing so in July 2005. The inflexibility helps Chinese exporters and means other currencies shoulder the burden of the weaker dollar.

While the dollar’s slide may buoy the U.S. economy by boosting demand for its goods, World Bank President Robert Zoellick repeated yesterday that it may lose its rank as the only reserve currency if budget deficits aren’t curbed. For now, it should still attract investors as a haven, he said.

“The American public and the American political leaders take for granted the unique standards of having the reserve currency,” Zoellick said. “You could lose what is an incredible thing to have.”

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Airline shares have rallied ahead of Labor Day, an anticipated turning point for the troubled industry when many carriers will begin slashing seat capacity to match the drop in demand.

Investors are hoping capacity cuts will allow airlines to jack up ticket prices and reverse declining revenue. But the plan could falter because business travelers, the industry’s bread and butter, have yet to return.

"We’ve seen some improvement, but I think the bulk of that is being driven by the leisure traveler," said analyst Matt Jacob. "But the business traveler, those who buy close to booking and pay a premium price, that section of the business has continued to be weak.

"So the concern is, once we reach Labor Day and the end of the leisure travel period, how will that impact the improvement we’ve seen?"

Airline stocks have been volatile as investors try to figure out that answer.

After hitting its lowest point on record in March, the NYSE Arca Airline Index has bumped along this summer as airlines readjusted outlooks because of depressed demand and declining revenue. But since late June, the industry benchmark has managed to climb more than 44 percent.

That enthusiasm is tempered among many airline analysts.

"Our short-term revenue data suggest a little strength in late summer," said UBS analyst Kevin Crissey in a recent note.

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