China’s new home price growth slowed in Beijing and Shanghai in March as the government intensified property curbs, sending the property stock index to its highest in a year.
New home prices in the capital of Beijing rose 4.9 percent in March from a year earlier, easing from a 6.8 percent gain in February, the statistics bureau said on its website today. In Shanghai, the country’s financial hub, prices climbed 1.7 percent last month, down from 2.3 percent growth in February. Of the 70 cities monitored by the government, 67 cities posted gains, down from 68 in the first two months, the data showed.
The government said last week that its measures are working. About 40 cities said last month they will cap new home prices below annual economic and disposable per-capita income growth or keep them steady following the central government’s measures to rein in housing values. China also said yesterday it will raise banks’ reserve requirements starting April 21 to cool inflation, and central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said monetary tightening will continue for “some time.”
“The turning point for home prices is getting closer and closer,” Shen Jian-guang, a Hong Kong-based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said in a phone interview. “The government is sending a strong signal to further tighten the liquidity and continue to control home prices.”
Challenges
Premier Wen Jiabao said last week in a cabinet meeting that the country faces challenges including rising property prices in many cities even as real estate transactions shrink. The government also raised the minimum down payment for second-home purchases this year and levied taxes on residences in Shanghai and Chongqing. Beijing and Guangzhou imposed restrictions on housing purchases in February, while the central bank raised interest rates twice this year.
The measure tracking property stocks on the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9 percent to the highest since April 16, 2010, at the 11:30 a.m. midday break. It also posted the biggest gain among the five industry groups on the benchmark gauge.
Home prices in Sanya on southern Hainan island fell the most by 0.6 percent last month from a year earlier. Nanchong in the western Sichuan province posted a 0.5 percent decline, while prices in Quanzhou in the country’s southeast were unchanged, the statistics bureau said.
‘Clear Sign’
New home prices in Beijing were unchanged in March from February, when they recorded a 0.4 percent month-on-month gain. In Shanghai, they added 0.2 percent in March, down from a 0.9 percent increase in February from the previous month. Of the 70 cities, 12 posted price declines in March from February, when only eight cities reported a drop in housing values, according to the data.
It’s a “clear sign that the market is cooling,” said Sun Mingchun, chief economist at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets in Hong Kong, adding that month-on-month data is more reflective of market trends. “Once we get higher bases and further price declines in the coming months, we should see year-on-year price changes turning negative in more and more cities.”
Existing home prices in Beijing fell 0.1 percent from February, while those in Shanghai jumped 0 low fee cash advance.4 percent.
China’s home sales value rose 26 percent in the first quarter to 860.7 billion yuan ($132 billion) from last year, driving all property transactions 27 percent higher to 1.02 trillion yuan, the statistics bureau reported last week.
Hot Money
Hot money inflows into the Chinese property market is creating bubbles in some cities, Jiang Jianqing, chairman of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest bank by market value, said on April 15.
Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook for China’s property sector on April 14 to “negative” from “stable” on concern residential sales could decline by as much has 30 percent as local government enforce housing restrictions.
The effects of the government’s controls on the property market were evident in the first quarter, Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the statistics bureau, said in Beijing on April 15. China’s investment in real estate rose 34 percent to 885 billion yuan in the first quarter, the government said last week.
“Property investment is still robust and we are seeing a mixed picture,” said Shen Minggao, Citigroup Inc.’s China research head. “It’s too early to draw a conclusion on whether the government curbs took effect. It might also be because these are lagging indexes.”
Mounting Concerns
The International Monetary Authority said April 11 that rapid credit growth has created “mounting concerns about the potential for steep corrections in property prices” in China.
Today’s figures came after private data showed the country’s housing market remained robust. China’s home prices rose 0.6 percent in March, expending gains, SouFun Holdings Ltd., operator of China’s biggest real estate website, reported on April 1.
There will be more government measures in the next month, Du Jinsong, a Hong Kong-based analyst for Credit Suisse Group AG, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today.
“This is a wakeup call for some of those who are very bullish,” said Du, who predicted in November the government will introduce more property curbs. “That means the government will definitely come up with more measures.”
China Vanke Co., the country’s biggest publicly traded developer, said March contracted sales value fell 37 percent from a year earlier in 14 major cities including Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou.
“Local government implementation will be critical, and all developers are quite cautious and are focusing on getting presales early,” Christie Ju, head of Hong Kong and China research at Jefferies Equity Research, said in an e-mailed response to queries.
China stopped releasing national average property prices and changed methodology of the survey starting this year, the statistics bureau announced on Feb. 17.
–Bonnie Cao. Editors: Linus Chua, Malcolm Scott
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Bonnie Cao in Beijing at +86-21-6104-3035 or bcao4@bloomberg.net
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