N.Z. Dollar Touches Record Versus Greenback on Export Data; Aussie Slips - Bloomberg
New Zealand’s dollar reached its highest level since exchange-rate controls ended in 1985 after a report showed the nation’s trade surplus widened by almost twice economists’ estimates to a record in April.
The so-called kiwi has risen 8.8 percent against the greenback since Feb. 25, the second-best performer among 16 major counterparts, as Asian demand drove up prices for New Zealand’s milk, lumber and meat exports. Australia’s dollar touched a three-month low against its New Zealand counterpart amid signs the bigger nation’s economy is cooling.
“Resilience of the kiwi has been very impressive,” said Mitul Kotecha, Hong Kong-based head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole CIB, a unit of France’s second- biggest bank. “The numbers today from New Zealand are obviously helping out as the trade data was far stronger than the market had expected.”
The kiwi rose to as high as 82.19 U.S. cents before trading at 81.78 cents as of 3:41 p.m. in Sydney. It closed at 81.92 U.S. cents in New York on May 27. The previous record of 82.14 U.S. cents was established in February 2008.
Australia’s dollar was at $1.0684 from $1.0706 on May 27 in New York, after earlier rising to $1.0737, the highest since May 11. The currency was at NZ$1.3066 from NZ$1.3058 after touching NZ$1.3019, the weakest level since Feb. 2. The Aussie fell to 86.30 yen from 86.49 yen.
Commodities Driving Surplus
The New Zealand dollar’s gain makes its exports more expensive, hampering the nation’s economic recovery from two earthquakes in the South Island city of Christchurch that killed more than 180 people and caused an estimated NZ$15 billion in reconstruction costs. Prime Minister John Key told reporters in Wellington today that the kiwi was trading at “unsustainable levels” for non-commodity exporters.
The exchange rate was “more bearable” for the commodity sector because of high export prices, he said.
Exports outpaced imports by NZ$1.11 billion ($908 million) from a revised NZ$578 million surplus in March, Statistics New Zealand said today in Wellington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists was for a NZ$600 million surplus.
Prices of New Zealand’s commodity exports gained for an eighth month to a record in April, according to an index calculated by ANZ National Bank Ltd. Exports to China, New Zealand’s second-biggest export market after Australia, surged 42 percent to NZ$5.39 billion in the year ended March 31, government figures showed.
‘Rising Incomes’
“Rising incomes in the Asian region will generate a long- run demand for agricultural commodities, with the New Zealand economy better placed than most” as a supplier, Richard Grace, chief currency strategist and head of international economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note to clients May 27. “These developments will be reflected in a higher New Zealand dollar.”
The Aussie halted its two-day gain against the greenback as the statistics bureau in Sydney said that gross operating profits at companies declined 2 percent in the first quarter from the previous three months, when they dropped a revised 1.7 percent.
Weaker GDP
Australia’s Treasurer Wayne Swan said before a government report on gross domestic product this week that natural disasters in the nation probably cut more than 1 percentage point from economic growth in the first quarter.
Swan’s latest estimate was higher than one he made in April that put damage to GDP in the first quarter at 0.75 percentage point. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists is for a 0.3 percent contraction from the final three months of 2010.
Gains in New Zealand’s dollar were limited as its 10-day relative strength index versus the U.S. dollar rose to 70.23, above the level of 70 that suggests an asset’s price has risen too fast and is poised to reverse course.
“The kiwi’s recent rise was rapid,” said Takuya Kawabata, a researcher in Tokyo at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest currency margin company. “It’s not surprising to see some correction.”