Finance Blog number 1

A survey of 500 tech and finance industry executives predicts that Mark Hurd's replacement as CEO at Hewlett-Packard Co. with either be an inside candidate or one from International Business Machines Corp.

About 43 percent of respondents said the most qualified replacement for Mark Hurd would come from those two sources, according to the survey by executive search firm Cook Associates which is expected to be published on Monday .

The survey was made available early to the New York Times.

The Times reported that among individuals named for the job Todd Bradley, who runs HP's PC business, and Steve Mills, who runs IBM's software business, tied as the most likely choices.

Hurd actually tied with Ann Livermore, HP's corporate technology chief, for the next best choice, as unlikely as it is that will happen.

The former CEO resigned on August 6 in the wake of sexual harassment charges brought by former actress and HP contractor Jodie Fisher. An internal investigation cleared him of those charges but found that he hadn't lived up to the company's code of conduct.

Hurd has reportedly agreed to pay a settlement to Fisher related to her accusations.

Chief Financial Officer Cathie Lesjak, 51, is acting as CEO on an interim basis. Lesjak is a 24-year veteran of the company who has served as HP’s CFO and as a member of the company’s Executive Council since January 2007.

To read more of the Business Journal's coverage of Mark Hurd's career and sudden resignation click here.

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Kevin Landry had to give up his San Diego apartment because he couldn’t afford the rent after his federal unemployment benefits were cut off in early June.

Since then, Landry and his cocker spaniel, Curley, have been sleeping in his 1991 Dodge Dakota in a church parking lot. He sold his possessions and applied for food stamps in order to survive.

And even though President Obama signed a measure Thursday that extends benefits through November, Landry knows he won’t get his $475 weekly check anytime soon.

The last time Congress allowed the benefits to lapse, it took a month for him to start getting payments again.

"I’ll just have to scrape by," said Landry, who lost his job as a credit manager for K2 Skis in September 2008. "There’s nothing I can do about it. I’ve learned to deal with it."

Though Congress has finally pushed the deadline to file for federal extended insurance through Nov. 30, it could take weeks before the jobless start getting their checks again.

Nearly 2.9 million people ran out of benefits in the nearly two months it took Congress to extend the filing deadline beyond June 2.

But just when the checks start hitting bank accounts and mailboxes again depends on the state.

The long delay wreaked havoc on the state unemployment insurance technology that process the payments. States often have to call in experts to reprogram the computer systems, which are an average of 22 years old.

And state officials have to make sure that the unemployed were eligible to receive benefits during the interim. If the jobless stopped looking for work or earned income during June or July, they may not qualify.

"States will move as quickly as possible to resume [federal unemployment] payments, but it will not happen overnight," said Rich Hobbie, executive director of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. "Because the program has lapsed for over a month, state workforce agencies need to ensure that claimants qualify for all retroactive payments."

The unemployed should check their state agency’s website for updates or wait for a letter with instructions on restarting their payments and claiming the retroactive sum, said Judy Conti, federal advocacy coordinator at the National Employment Law Project Low fee payday loans.

Some states asked the jobless to continue sending in the forms certifying they were eligible for payments. The unemployed in those places will likely see their checks sooner.

But it will still take time, said Steve Meissner, a spokesman for the Arizona Department of Economic Security, which told its 64,000 claimants who were affected by the lapse to keep filing.

"We will do it as quickly as we can," he said, adding the state is still waiting to receive official guidance from the federal Department of Labor. "There are always some ambiguities because unemployment law is pretty complicated."

The checks, however, can’t come too quickly for the jobless. For many, it’s the only way they can afford housing, utilities, food and car payments, Conti said.

Vicki Wolf of Lebanon, Pa., is anxiously awaiting her $393 weekly check so she can pay her rent and buy essentials, such as shampoo. The former call center supervisor, who continued sending in her forms to the state, is behind on all her bills because she hasn’t had any income since June 5.

Pennsylvania officials said in a statement that those who kept filing their paperwork should receive payment within two weeks. The rest of the more than 200,000 state residents who lost their benefits should submit their claims online as soon as possible.

Wolf, at least, is one of the luckier ones. She starts a new job at a trucking company on Monday, though she won’t see her first paycheck until mid-August. Until then, she’ll have to walk 45 minutes to work from her home.

"I don’t have money to buy gas to put in the car," she said. 

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However, if you are online you might notice there are many websites who claim to offer a freecreditscore check.

BP’s stock price has fallen far enough for the oil company to become an attractive takeover target for its biggest rivals, according to industry analysts.

BP’s (BP) stock finished at $28.88 Wednesday, a plunge of more than 50% from its close of $60.09 on April 19, the day before its leased oil rig, the Deepwater Horizon, exploded and sank in the Gulf of Mexico.

Fred Lucas of JPMorgan believes that investors have overdone it, making the stock an attractive value for buyers — including other companies.

"In theory, either Exxon Mobil or RD Shell could consider a bid for BP," wrote Lucas in a note to investors. "We focus on these two names because they have similar business models and similar global asset structures. They also bear the lowest political risk to a potential combination with BP."

Lucas said that his idea of a proposed takeover of BP was "prompted by the gap between the current market value of BP and the intrinsic value that we see in BP."

Another oil industry analyst, Douglas Youngson of Arbuthnot Securities, told CNNMoney last month that if BP’s stock dropped below $30 a share, it would become an attractive takeover target.

"If the share price continues to fall, other companies may see this for the bargain it will be," said Youngson on June 2, when BP’s stock closed at $37.66.

Of the various big players in the oil industry — including Gazprom and PetroChina (PTR) — Lucas believes that ExxonMobil (XOM, Fortune 500) is in the best position to be the acquirer.

He wrote that Exxon Mobil "has the largest rating advantage and strongest balance sheet," providing it with enough cash to handle the deal.

"Exxon Mobil has also proven its ability to integrate a very large transaction successfully — its merger with Mobil was a resounding success," added Lucas low fee cash advance. "RD Shell has no large-scale merger integration experience."

Gazprom wouldn’t be a contender because of a "low stock market rating," he said, while PetroChina "would encounter major political barriers given its controlling shareholder - the Chinese government."

BP has been purging itself of cash to try and fix the environmental and economic aftermath of the disaster.

The company said it has paid out $2.65 billion for the clean-up, and another $130 million on 41,000 claims from workers and business owners who lost their livelihoods in the wake of the spill. More than 80,000 claims have been submitted so far. Bowing to pressure from the U.S. government, BP has put $20 billion in escrow to cover damages.

Lucas figures that the leak will stop sometime in July, meaning a finite cap to the liabilities. So this might be a good time for Exxon Mobil to swoop in, especially since the oil giant has had its own experiences with catastrophic oil spills.

Before BP’s environmental disaster in the Gulf, Exxon had the dubious distinction of causing the nation’s worst oil spill, when the Exxon Valdez oil tanker ran aground off the coast of Alaska in 1989.

"In many respects, an accurate valuation of BP today depends less on a valuation of its assets, but more on an accurate value of its potential liabilities," wrote Lucas. "Who knows better how to price potential clean-up costs and associated civil claims than Exxon Mobil?"

Spokesmen for BP and RD Shell declined to comment on this story. Exxon Mobil did not respond to messages from CNNMoney.com. 

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New York state legislators have avoided a government shutdown—for now—by enacting another emergency spending plan for the state.

The state has funded bare-bones operations through a series of the one-week plans, which are necessary because the full budget is now 76 days past due. For weeks, negotiations have produced few results.

Legislators passed the 11th straight emergency spending plan on June 14, allotting money needed to keep the lights on through June 20.

The bill’s fate was never in doubt in the Assembly, where Democrats enjoy a wide 107-42 margin. But three Republicans, including two Capital Region legislators, were critical in ensuring the bill passed the Senate.

Rejection of any earlier spending bills would also have led to a government shutdown. But this time, the odds of a shutdown were larger than ever, since at least one Democrat voted against the bill, and others threatened to do so.

Government would have shut down had the bill failed. It would have meant the closure of state agencies, parks and construction projects. State workers, vendors and unemployment benefits would not have been paid, or received IOUs.

A bipartisan vote was necessary because Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. (D-Bronx) voted against the bill, protesting the cuts it made to welfare and public assistance.

Democrats have just a 32-30 margin in the Senate, and at least 32 votes are needed to pass a bill.

Republican Sens. Hugh Farley (Niskayuna), Roy McDonald (Saratoga) and Charles Fuschillo Jr. (Long Island) voted in favor of the bill.

The final Senate tally was 34-27.

Farley and McDonald faced particular pressure, since thousands of state workers live in their districts.

“Fear was used as a weapon today,” McDonald said on the Senate floor payday loans for bad credit.

Farley said he could not vote to shut down state government, at least this time.

“It enables this dreadful, dreadful budget process to keep going on. It lets this dysfunctional process continue,” Farley said in an interview. “But you can’t shut down state government. That would be a calamity.”

Still, Farley said he likely would not vote for future emergency spending plans if they included new or higher levels of taxes, fees or borrowing.

Sen. John Sampson (D-Brooklyn), the top Democrat in the Senate, thanked the three Republicans for their “courage and leadership.”

By law, Gov. David Paterson authors the emergency spending plans, which court cases have established as all-or-nothing votes for legislators.

This time, Paterson forced legislators to lock in full fiscal year spending on public assistance and welfare programs, including $3.5 billion for the Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance, a slight decrease from the 2009-10 fiscal year.

The state is saving $327 million by cutting support of some welfare-related programs, while also budgeting increased attrition and revenue from audits. There are no tax increases in the bill.

Last week, Paterson used the emergency spending plan to force legislators to establish almost all of the state’s Medicaid budget for the fiscal year, totaling more than $50 billion of spending. Medicaid and school aid, which legislators have not yet voted on, together make up more than half of the state’s annual budget.

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In the wake of recessionary conditions, television company Belo Corp. is reporting a promising trend on the advertising side of the business.

Dallas-based Belo (NYSE: BLC) presented at the Barclays Capital High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference on Thursday.

During the presentation, Belo President and Chief Executive Officer Dunia Shive said first-quarter spot advertising revenue is better than expected and is “pacing up in the mid-teens no fax cash loans.”

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ST. LOUIS — Holly Cunningham is expanding her business. Angela Watson is rebuilding her life.

Both are happening here, on the fourth floor of the St. Patrick Center, where holiday orders for goodies such as Lemon Heaven cookies and Holly Dolly dessert bars pour in.

It’s the busiest time of the year for Cunningham’s Hollyberry Baking Co., and she has turned to the region’s biggest provider of homeless services to help meet the demand.

St. Patrick is the only homeless services agency in the country to operate an in-house business incubator. In October, the agency opened a licensed commercial kitchen at the incubator and has since doubled its number of tenants, including the popular treat baker.

Cunningham, a Webster Groves mom, admits that it seemed an unlikely fit for her suburban business. Before taking the plunge, she said she gave her biggest sales pitch ever to employees, certain they would have trepidation about working downtown in a building that caters to transients.

She even ran the idea past some of her customers, making sure she wasn’t going completely off track. Support was overwhelming from both employees and customers, she said.

Watson is one of the four St. Patrick Center clients Cunningham has hired. Living in a women’s shelter and enrolled in a recovery program for drug addiction, Watson says the work experience and paycheck will help her get back on her feet and have job skills to get her permanent employment.

"I take life a day at a time," Watson said, as she packed fresh-baked dessert bars into clear plastic bags. "I’m a go-getter."

For Cunningham, the new kitchen at St. Patrick Center serves a dual purpose for her 11-year-old business. She can expand without the expense of adding on to her current business in case the uptick is only temporary. And she can tap into a ready-made work force that has been trained through various programs the center offers.

In turn, the social service agency has a new partner to hire those who many employers shun. In a climate of high unemployment, being homeless — often with a drug addiction or criminal record — makes finding work that much more challenging.

Cunningham and her employees train and supervise the St. Patrick clients working in the center’s kitchen.

"Having an established company here gives us a better grasp of food manufacturing and food distribution," said St. Patrick Center CEO Dan Buck.

St. Patrick Center received a $3.5 million federal grant to renovate two floors of its building at 800 North Tucker Boulevard, including space for a business incubator, which opened last year and now has 15 companies renting space. The businesses share a reception area and conference rooms, with access to office equipment such as a copy machine and postage meter. They pay for office space based on square footage.

The National Business Incubation Association says St. Patrick stands alone nationally as the only known center specifically catering to the homeless that has started an in-house business incubator.

"People are going to pay attention to this, especially given the current economic climate," said Corinne Colbert, spokeswoman for the association, which estimates there are 1,100 incubators in the country.

The U.S. Commerce Department’s Economic Development Administration, pleased with St. Patrick Center’s success, last month awarded the agency an additional $250,000 grant. It will be used to help buy more equipment for the culinary suite, which replaced a seldom used wood shop no fax cash advance. With the additional equipment, seven companies will be able to share the space, including two catering companies, a barbecue-sauce manufacturer, gourmet-popcorn maker and a company that specializes in whole-grain products including frozen waffles. In addition to startups, St. Patrick Center continues to look for established businesses such as Hollyberry to expand into the incubator.

"We’re encouraging companies to expand with a social conscience," Buck said.

The kitchen is a more practical work area than the wood shop, Buck said. Construction jobs are down, but there is always a need for food service and food production, he said.

"It’s an economic sector that is actually hiring," said Buck.

Outside the culinary suite, other businesses are using the St. Patrick incubator to grow their futures. Heaven Sent is one of them.

While in prison for dealing drugs, Lamond Allen repaired the dining hall’s stoves and refrigerators. That tinkering came in handy when his 7 1/2 year sentence ended two years ago.

With the help of St. Patrick Center, Allen got into a program that certified him in HVAC work. With that training, he started Heaven Sent, a building maintenance business.

He currently has a contract with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to clean up and make safe foreclosed homes, including checking for gas leaks.

Allen has two employees, one an ex-con who went through the same training program as Allen, and another living in transitional housing.

"My whole focus is giving someone a chance," Allen said. Moving his business from his home into St. Patrick Center has helped him navigate the various trappings of a new business including legal, financial and insurance needs. If there is any question on how to run a business, the staff at the incubator, headed by Jan DeYoung, is there to lend a hand.

"They’re my lifeline," Allen said. And through the incubator, he has begun building relationships with other businesses. For example, he hired A.U. Innovative Land Management for a hauling job.

Cathey Allen and Ren

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum wanted to turn Dubai into a global hub for finance and tourism, the next London or Hong Kong. To help execute his vision, the ruler relied heavily on Dubai World, the web of state-owned companies that includes everything from DP World, which operates 49 ports across the globe, to property developer Nakheel to investment arm Istithmar World.

Unlike Abu Dhabi, the wealthy emirate to the southwest, Dubai had little oil production to fuel its efforts. Instead, lenders poured more than $100 billion into Dubai, at least $34 billion of which went to Dubai World. Now, Dubai World is at the center of the mess in the emirate, Bloomberg BusinessWeek reported in its Dec. 14 issue. Executives at the holding company are scrambling to renegotiate $26 billion in debt, which the government said it may not back.

The clock is ticking: Roughly $3.5 billion of the debt comes due on Dec. 14. “Dubai World is an example of too big to fail but also too big to guarantee,” says Rachel Ziemba, a senior analyst at Roubini Global Economics, a research firm. Dubai World declined to comment.

Regardless of the outcome, Dubai World may have to temper its global ambitions. Already, advisers are assessing the portfolio to figure out what holdings can be sold to raise cash. The conglomerate likely will retain control of its infrastructure assets such as the ports, which are the emirate’s crown jewels. But its global real estate and retail holdings may be auctioned off to the highest bidder. Abu Dhabi may go after some pieces in exchange for bailout money, say analysts.

‘Sovereign Halo’

The blurry lines between Dubai World, the corporate entity, and Dubai, the sovereign state, only make the restructuring process more unpredictable than that of a typical private company. In the end, the fate of Dubai World may be determined by the families that have governed the region for over a century, rather than investment bankers on Wall Street.

“This may just come down to one sheikh calling another,” says a senior adviser, who’s currently working with Dubai World.

Dubai World’s debt might never have hit such unsustainable levels if bankers had peeked behind the curtain. But most figured the emirate, or its neighbor Abu Dhabi, would bail out the businesses if they ran into financial trouble. The belief was so strong that both lenders and Dubai World executives referred to the “sovereign halo” around the enterprise.

“Lenders weren’t looking too hard into what entity was actually backing the debt,” says Eckart Woertz, an economist at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “There was an implicit sovereign guarantee, which the government didn’t discourage.”

‘Bowl of Spaghetti’

Internal documents only underscored that notion. Dealmakers that worked with creditors relied on a highly complicated, labyrinthine chart detailing Dubai World and all its related entities.

“It’s a bowl of spaghetti in terms of their corporate structure,” says a top U.S. executive with extensive dealings in the region. “There are so many different companies and companies within companies.”

But the document pointed to one reassuring thing: The Dubai government owned 100% of Dubai World. Lenders that did try to dig into the organization got a fuzzy picture. Dubai World didn’t typically disclose its complete portfolio or provide financials to any of its creditors.

“The banks understood that regular, fully audited reports from Dubai World were simply not available and not to be asked for,” says Chris Turner, a former director of risk and asset management at Istithmar World.

‘Jelly to a Wall’

He estimates that Western banks gave Dubai World at least $15 billion in 2006 and 2007 without looking at the numbers. Turner, who was found guilty in absentia of embezzlement last month, maintains his innocence in the matter: “I fully intend to litigate and defend my actions in a court of good standing” outside of Dubai.

Even Dubai World didn’t know exactly what it owned, according to Turner. In 2007 he started to build a list of all the real estate holdings at Istithmar World, including their current value. His team spent almost a year on the project, a task that Turner said should have taken a few months. Some loan documents and sale agreements were found in a file cabinet in an office that had been empty for months.

“Being a risk officer there was like nailing jelly to a wall,” he says paydayloans.

RBS, HSBC Loans

In a recent report on the debt restructuring published by Moody’s Investors Service, the credit rating company refers to the “limited availability of information regarding the consolidated finances and debt burdens of state-owned enterprises.”

Despite the lack of transparency, Dubai World had no problem borrowing money. British financial firms, including Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC, arranged about $4.4 billion of the conglomerate’s loans, according to a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland declined to comment.

Dubai World used the cash to fund a flurry of purchases. But dealmakers did so at the height of the credit boom, paying a premium for their global aspirations. The company shelled out $665 million for two New York hotels, the W Union Square and the Mandarin Oriental, whose sale prices each broke a local record of $1 million per guest room, according to Real Capital Analytics. It also has a 50% stake in CityCenter, a resort and casino development on the Las Vegas Strip that’s opening this month.

“They defined the peak of the real estate bubble,” says Dan Fasulo, managing director of Real Capital Analytics.

‘Burning Through Cash’

Now pieces of the portfolio may be sold to pay off creditors. A group of outside advisers is working with Dubai World to assess the damage and figure out the next steps. For example, AlixPartners, a New York restructuring firm, is dealing with the various businesses owned by Dubai World on potential divestitures and layoffs.

“The advisers will review Dubai World’s portfolio, focusing on assets where there is still equity that can be sold as well as those that are burning through cash,” says Fasulo.

In a statement, the conglomerate said Port & Free Zone World (the parent of DP World), Infinity World Holding, and Istithmar World would be excluded from the debt restructuring because of the units’ “stable financial footing.”

CityCenter, the largest-ever privately financed construction project in the U.S., may be one of the easiest assets for Dubai World to sell. The $8.5 billion project has a relatively small debt load. That could make it more appealing to prospective buyers than other assets in the conglomerate’s portfolio.

Vultures Circle

Some properties may be wrested from Dubai World’s control. Troubled loans backed by the W Union Square will be auctioned this month. The winner could use them to gain control of the luxury hotel, according to Real Capital Analytics.

The Mandarin, which is suffering from the slump in travel, may not have enough money to cover debt payments, say analysts. If the hotel does fall behind, pieces of the debt may be up for grabs, too.

Already, opportunists are circling. Private equity firms, such as Los Angeles’ Colony Capital and Starwood Capital in Greenwich, Conn., are checking out real estate, according to people familiar with the matter. Hedge fund Perry Capital, which owns debt backed by Barneys New York, has been approached by investors, including Toronto department store Holt Renfrew, about a takeover of the retailer.

Dubai World will have to be cautious not to unload assets too quickly in the current environment.

Cherry-Picking Assets

“Any desperate fire sale would further limit the amount of cash they can raise,” says Ziemba of Roubini Global Economics.

Regardless, Dubai World faces some steep losses on any sales. The company paid $1 billion for Barneys in 2007. Earlier this year bankers valued the retailer at less than half that.

Abu Dhabi likely will keep close watch on the process. The emirate, which has agreed to provide as much as $15 billion in financial support to Dubai, may offer additional funds to its profligate neighbor.

There may be strings attached this time. Some analysts think the capital of the United Arab Emirates may ask for equity in some assets, cherry-picking those that fit within its own regional dreams. That could include parts of the infrastructure assets, including the ports.

“Abu Dhabi is standing by Dubai, but it won’t be giving a blank check,” says Philipp Lotter, a senior vice-president at Moody’s. “It has drawn a line in the sand.”

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Sales of newly built homes fell unexpectedly in September after rising for five straight months, according to government figures released Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said new home sales fell 3.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 402,000 last month, from a downwardly revised rate of 417,000 in August. It was the first time new home sales declined since March.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected September new home sales to rise to a rate of 440,000 units.

"We’re attributing most of the decline to the potential expiration of the new home-buyer tax credit," said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo. "It’s getting harder to buy a house and no one wants to close after the credit expires," he added.

In addition to relatively low prices and attractive mortgage rates, the housing market has been supported in recent months by a temporary government tax credit for first-time homebuyers.

The tax break. The credit can be worth up to $8,000 for eligible buyers,but is set to expire at the end of November. Congress is expected to extend the credit, but the terms are still being debated.

Most economists believe that the drop in September’s new home sales was driven primarily by the tax credit’s timetable — but not all of them agree.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, contends that first-time homebuyers are more likely to buy an existing home than a new home, which suggests that the tax credit is less of an issue for new home sales.

Zandi attributed the increase in new home sales over the past five months to low interest rates and more aggressive FHA lending. And he adds that these recent increases haven’t been spectacular. "All we can say is the new home market is stabilized."

Foreclosures still loom best payday advance. Wednesday’s report highlighted concerns about the long-term outlook for the housing market, which remains challenged by rising unemployment and a glut of foreclosed properties on the market.

A separate report showed Wednesday that applications for home loans, considered a leading indicator of sales, fell for the third week in a row last week.

The Commerce Department report showed the median sales price jumped to $204,800 in September from $195,200 the month before. The average sales price rose to $282,600.

The price increase echoed an industry report released Tuesday that showed home prices in 20 major markets rose for the fourth month in a row during August.

Meanwhile, the estimated number of new homes for sale at the end of last month fell to 251,000 units on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s down from 262,000 unsold homes last month and was the lowest level since November 1982.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said the drop in housing inventory means the market is moving towards a better balance of supply and demand. "But the tax credit story is the key element right now," he added.

He said that the credit’s looming expiration will probably mean that home sales will fall again in October and, depending upon where the legislation stands, in November as well.

At the current sales pace, it would take 7.5 months to sell through existing inventory, according to the report. That’s up from the previous month, when the there was about 7.3 months of inventory on the market.

– CNN senior writer Jeanne Sahadi contributed to this report.  

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U.K. unemployment rose by the least in a year and fewer people signed on for jobless benefits than economists forecast as the recession eased.

The number of people seeking work in the three months through August rose by 88,000, the smallest increase since the quarter through July 2008, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Claims for jobless benefits rose by 20,800 in September, less than the 24,500 median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 28 economists.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is trying to revive the economy in time for an election due by June 2010 as opinion polls show his Labour Party trailing the opposition Conservatives. Gross domestic product, which has dropped for five quarters, may have stopped shrinking during the three months through September, curbing job losses.

“The slower rise is welcome but I wouldn’t get too excited,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC and a former central bank official. “I still think we will see unemployment going through 3 million next year.”

The pound extended gains against the dollar after the report. The U.K. currency traded at $1.6005 as of 10:11 a.m. in London, from $1.5925 yesterday.

The unemployment rate in the three months through August as measured by International Labour Organisation standards was 7.9 percent, the statistics office said. That compares with 9.6 percent in the euro region, 9.8 percent in the U.S. and 5.5 percent in Japan.

Job Cuts

Alliance & Leicester, a unit of Banco Santander SA, announced the closure of its Heritage House site and the loss of 200 jobs across two Leicester sites in England, the Communication Workers Union said yesterday in a statement.

Overall unemployment was 2.47 million in the quarter through August, a drop of 1,000 from the three months through July. The total claimant count rose to 1.63 million in September, the highest since April 1997.

Labour advanced in a survey by Populus Ltd. after ministers attacked bankers and the rich, narrowing the Conservatives’ lead over the government. Labour had the support of 30 percent of voters compared with 40 percent for the opposition, according to the survey for the London-based Times conducted from Oct. 9 to Oct. 11.

‘Significant Slowing’

“We’re seeing a significant slowing in the rate of increase of unemployment,” Employment minister Jim Knight said on Sky News. “We expect it to continue to rise for some months yet. That’s why we need to continue spending. If we choke off that investment as the Conservatives are proposing could make that level rise to 5 million. We should be borrowing now to invest to make sure we move to growth. It’s a big problem for young people.”

The U.K. economy shrank 0.6 percent in the second quarter, less than previously estimated, and the National Institute of Economics and Social Research said last week gross domestic product stopped falling in the three months through September.

Signs of recovery are allowing some companies to limit job losses. General Motors Co.’s U.K.-based Vauxhall unit, which employs more than 5,000 people, will suffer no compulsory job losses following its planned takeover by Magna International Inc. of Canada, the Unite union said yesterday.

Average earnings excluding bonuses grew an annual 1.9 percent in the quarter through August, the lowest since at least 2001, the statistics office said. Including bonuses, they increased by 1.6 percent.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said the central bank should start raising interest rates “sooner rather than later,” and such tightening wouldn’t derail the U.S. economic recovery.

“Even if we were to start immediately, much time would pass before incremental increases could be considered tight or even neutral policy,” Hoenig said yesterday in a speech in Denver. “I would not support a tight monetary policy in the current environment, but my experience tells me that we will need to remove our very accommodative policy sooner rather than later.”

Hoenig’s comments parallel those by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who said on Sept. 25 the Fed may need to tighten “with greater force than is customary,” and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who said on Oct. 1 that rates may need to be raised even with unemployment near 10 percent.

“We all know that the neutral rate is not zero,” said Hoenig, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year. “Equally obvious to me is that a rate of 1 or 2 percent is not tight monetary policy. It is still very accommodative.”

In contrast, New York Fed President William Dudley said this week the central bank needs to focus in the near term on keeping rates low, citing concern inflation could slow too much.

The Federal Open Market Committee said last month the U.S. economy has “picked up” following the deepest recession since the 1930s. Officials slowed the purchase of $1.45 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and housing debt, while pledging to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero for an “extended period.”

Economy Shrank

Economic growth will average 2.6 percent in the second half of this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists last month. The world’s largest economy shrank at a 0.7 percent annual rate from April through June, the best performance in more than a year, according to government figures.

The U.S. jobless rate climbed to 9.8 percent in September, from 9.7 percent in August, the Labor Department reported on Oct. 2. That brings total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 7.2 million, the most since the Great Depression.

“We are in recovery,” Hoenig said at a forum hosted by the bank’s Denver branch. Stimulus to the economy will probably “prevent a double-dip recession.”

“Consumer confidence is rebounding, and we are starting to see improvement in business and manufacturing,” he said. “Additionally, yield spreads between low-risk assets, such as Treasuries, and higher risk assets are narrowing.”

Almost Zero

The Fed lowered its main interest rate almost to zero in December, switching to asset purchases and credit programs as the main policy tools. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is leading plans to buy $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and as much as $200 billion of federal agency debt by March, along with $300 billion of long-term Treasuries by October.

Hoenig also called for Congress to address the problem of creating a resolution mechanism for banks that are so large they could, in the event of failure, damage the financial system. A proposal before Congress for a regulatory overhaul is inadequate, he said.

“The proposal does not adequately address the too-big-to- fail problem in that it still provides too much latitude to rescue failing firms,” he said. “It confirms the practice of addressing failure of the largest firms in an ad hoc manner with individuals rather than the rule of law deciding which firms get rescued and which do not.”

Rescue Firms

Hoenig, the Kansas City Fed’s president since 1991 and the longest-serving Fed policy maker, said large U.S. banks have carried lower capital ratios than their smaller rivals because investors assumed the government will rescue big financial institutions that fail.

“My view is that we do not have to subsidize or ‘learn to live with’ the financial oligarchy that exists,” he said in his speech.

“You can’t keep them from failing,” Hoenig said in response to an audience question. “The unintended consequences of this are just devastating.”

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