Finance Blog number 1

The financial world initial rejoiced Friday when word came of a deal by most European countries _ including all 17 that use the euro _ to allow the European Commission to oversee national budgets and impose penalties if a country’s debt grows too much.

Since then questions have emerged about the willingness of each individual country to ratify the agreement, the lack of a short-term solution to high debt in Greece, Italy and Spain, and what the future monetary policy of the European Central Bank will be.

The Associated Press spoke with four experts Sunday about the deal and what implications it will have for the markets. Here are their thoughts, edited for clarity.

Peter Tchir, founder of TF Market Advisors: It has to go and be ratified. They’re talking about doing balanced budget amendments in each of the countries. It seems like this was done very last minute. I’m highly suspicious that there’s really a full buy in. I think some of these balanced budget acts are going to take a while to implement. There was also more document space talking about being able to waive penalties than what the penalties would be.

How serious are those punishments going to be and will they ever be enforced? If you look at monetary punishments, where there’s a fine, the country already believes it’s necessary to run a deficit in the current year because their economy is stagnating, are they going to get afraid because of the fine or just lump that into part of the cost? Will they get kicked out of the euro? Clearly at this point the EU has shown anything but a willingness to kick somebody out. They became so scared of that, that they cobbled out bailout after bailout.

On Monday and Tuesday the stock market is going to be looking for the ECB to come in and say, “We can buy as much sovereign debt as we want now.” I don’t think we are going to get that statement and that’s going to put downward pressure on the stock market. It’s going to finally hit home in the U.S. that the ECB does not believe in quantitative easing in the same way that the U.S. does and they’re not going to view this pact as a reason to change their view. That is going to disappoint the market.

Brian Gendreau, market strategist at Cetera Financial Group: There’s a long-term solution in place but there’s no solution to the current crisis. There’s still the prospect of default on Greek bonds and there’s still problems faced by Italy meeting the financing obligations moving forward. It is a welcome first step. I think there’s widespread recognition that it’s going to be a long process one way or another. There were compromises in the agreement.

There are a lot of questions that still remain. One of them is the role of the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort. The ECB has made it clear that they are willing to undertake the role of lender of last resort to banks but there’s a question of to what extent will the ECB be lender of last resort to countries.

This is going to set a better tone for the market going forward. There is a lot of repressed demand for stocks. There are a lot of people who have moved into CDs and Treasurys. People are going to be looking for the green light to move out of those funds. When they do, they’re going to move into stocks. Ultimately, the big beneficiary might be stock markets, including the U.S. stock market.

Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies for ING Investment Management: Overall, it was a very positive step in the right direction but it wasn’t this grand bargain that I was hoping for and others were hoping for earlier last week. But some very good things did happen. The member states did agree to some legislation that would be more binding in terms of the deficits and debt. It would be overseen by the European courts.

I see two problems. One is that overall growth is slowing throughout the region. Germany is the bright spot. Most economists, including ourselves, have (forecast) a mild recession for next year. With slowing growth, it’s hard to get good budget numbers. Second, the agreement has been made but the laws haven’t been passed and signed.

There’s going to need to be pressure kept on these peripheral countries to go through with this. That means you are going to have to keep walking close to the edge in terms of the markets and the threat of the euro region breaking up if these guys don’t come through. We’re still not done with this dance with death. Until these laws are passed, there are going to be scares. There’s going to continue to be volatility coming from this region.

Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman: On the eve of the European summit, the ECB provided an incredible amount of liquidity to the market. I don’t know if the market fully appreciates that yet. They were willing to loan money to banks for three years. We’re not talking about a short-term, one-week loan. This is a three-year loan essentially. As much as they want, provided they have the collateral, which they also liberalized the definition of.

The take-away point is that the euro and eurozone survives without the ECB being a backstop for the sovereigns and without European bonds being issued. They live to fight another day. But it doesn’t change things. They’re still heading toward a recession. The ECB is still going to have to ease policy. They still have something on the magnitude of 1.8 trillion euros ($2.41 trillion) of bonds maturing, concentrated in the first half of next year.

____

Scott Mayerowitz can be reached at http://twitter.com/GlobeTrotScott.

Source

Britain’s prime minister is threatening that he may not allow a group of 23 European Union states that plan to set up their own treaty to use EU institutions.

David Cameron says “The institutions of the European Union belong to the European Union, belong to the 27″ member states.

The 17 euro states and six other EU states early Friday agreed to create a new treaty that will allow them to introduce stricter fiscal rules in the hope of containing a worsening debt crisis payday loans.

They plan to rely on the European Commission and the European Court of Justice to enforce those rules.

Cameron said it was not in the U.K.’s interest to join the new treaty because he could not get special safeguards for the country’s financial center.

Source

Anticipating a strong presence in the new Egyptian parliament, ultraconservative Islamists outlined plans Friday for a strict brand of religious law, a move that could limit personal freedoms and steer a key U.S. ally toward an Islamic state.

Egypt’s election commission announced only a trickle of results from the first round of parliamentary elections and said 62 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the highest turnout in modern history.

However, leaked counts point to a clear majority for Islamist parties at the expense of liberal activist groups that led the uprising against Hosni Mubarak, toppling a regime long seen as a secular bulwark in the Middle East.

The more pragmatic Muslim Brotherhood is poised to take the largest share of votes, as much as 45 percent. But the Nour Party, which espouses a strict interpretation of Islam in which democracy is subordinate to the Quran, could win a quarter of the house, giving it much power to affect debate.

A spokesman, Yousseri Hamad, said his party considers God’s law the only law.

“In the land of Islam, I can’t let people decide what is permissible or what is prohibited,” Hamad told The Associated Press. “It is God who gives the answers as to what is right and what is wrong.”

The Nour Party is the main political arm of the hard-line Salafist Muslim movement, which espouses a strict form of Islam similar to that practiced in Saudi Arabia. Salafis, who often wear long beards and seek to imitate the life of the Prophet Muhammad, speak openly about their aim of turning Egypt into a state where personal freedoms, including freedom of speech, women’s dress and art, are constrained by Islamic law _ goals that make many Egyptians nervous.

Salafis object to women in leadership roles, citing Muhammad as saying that “no people succeed if led by women.” However, when election regulations forced all parties to include women, Salafi cleric Yasser el-Bourhami relented, saying that “committing small sins” is better than “committing bigger ones” _ by which he meant letting secular people run the government.

In the end, the party put women at the bottom of its lists, represented by flowers since women’s photos were deemed inappropriate.

This week, Salafi cleric and parliamentary candidate Abdel-Monem Shahat caused a stir by saying the novels of Egypt’s Nobel laureate Naguib Mahfouz, read widely in Egyptian schools, are “all prostitution.”

Salafis are newcomers on Egypt’s political scene. They long shunned the concept of democracy, saying it allows man’s law to override God’s. But they formed parties and entered politics after Mubarak’s ouster, seeking to enshrine Islamic law in Egypt’s new constitution.

By contrast, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest and best organized political group, was officially banned under Mubarak but established a nationwide network of activists who built a reputation for offering services to the poor. After Mubarak’s fall, the group’s Freedom and Justice Party campaigned fiercely, their organization and name-recognition giving them a big advantage over newly formed liberal parties.

Stakes are particularly high since the new parliament is supposed to oversee writing Egypt’s new constitution. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which took control of the country when Mubarak fell, has tried to impose restrictions on membership in the 100-member drafting committee. The Muslim Brotherhood has said it will challenge the move, and a strong showing by Islamists in the elections could boost its popular mandate to do so.

Hamed, the Nour Party spokesman, said democracy can’t pass laws that contradict religion.

“We endorse Egyptian democracy,” he said. “However, I don’t give absolute freedom to people to legislate to themselves and decide on what is right or wrong.

“We have God’s laws that tell us that.”

He suggested, for example, that alcohol should be banned and that a state agency could penalize Muslims for eating during the day during the holy month of Ramadan, when the devout fast from dawn to dusk.

The Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis have both cooperated and disagreed in the past.

They tried to form an electoral alliance, which broke down over disagreements about including Christians and women in their electoral lists. However, the two parties campaigned together in some areas and declined to contest certain seats so as not to split the Islamist vote and allow liberal candidates to win.

The strong Islamist showing worries liberal parties who fear the two groups will work to push a religious agenda. It has also caused many youth activists who launched the anti-Mubarak uprising to feel that their revolution has been hijacked. Still, the liberal Egyptian Bloc coalition, which is competing with the Salafis to be the second-largest parliamentary bloc, could counterbalance hard-line elements.

Cooperation between the Brotherhood and Salafis in parliament isn’t guaranteed, said Shadi Hamid, Middle East expert with the Brookings Doha Center. The Brotherhood is a pragmatic organization that will work with other parties to achieve its goals, while the Salafis shun compromise.

Once the parliament is seated, Hamid expects the Brotherhood to focus on establishing a strong parliamentary system, reforming state institutions and boosting the economy _ goals they share with liberal groups.

“Banning alcohol or passing laws on women’s dress are not on their priority list, and they see these issues as a distraction from the issues at hand,” he said.

Still, a strong Salafist bloc in parliament will have a “massive effect,” he said, by giving the group a larger platform for its views.

“The Salafis are going to insert religion into the public debate in a way that would not have happened otherwise,” he said.

Many in Egypt’s Coptic Christian population, which makes up 10 percent of the country, fear the Salafis will push for laws that will make them second-class citizens.

Even some religious Egyptians see the Salafi as too extreme.

“I am religious and don’t want laws that go against my beliefs, but there shouldn’t be religious law,” said Ahmed Abdel-Rahman, a geography teacher. “I don’t want anyone imposing his religious views on me.”

The election commission said Friday that more than 8 million eligible voters _ 62 percent _ participated in the first round. But it announced final results in only a few races. It remains unclear when complete final results will be released.

This week’s vote, held in nine provinces, will determine about 30 percent of the 498 seats in the People’s Assembly, parliament’s lower house. Two more rounds, ending in January, will cover Egypt’s other 18 provinces.

Source

A pair of triple button Ugg boots for just $209 at a U.S. online retailer looks like a better deal than the $285 price tag on Ugg

Italy had to pay sharply higher borrowing rates to entice investors to part with their cash during a couple of auctions Friday, in an acute sign that Europe’s crippling debt crisis is laying siege to the eurozone’s third-largest economy.

The auction results are another sign that the country’s new technocratic government, faces a big battle to convince that it has a strategy to get a grip on the country’s massive debts.

The country had to pay an average yield of 7.814 percent to raise euro2 billion in two-year bills. That rate was sharply higher on the 4.628 percent it had to pay in the previous auction and represented a new high since the creation of the euro in 1999.

And even raising euro8 billion for six months proved exorbitantly expensive. The yield for this auction spiked to 6.504 percent, nearly double the 3.535 percent rate in the last equivalent auction no faxing payday loans.

Following the grim news on the auction front, the country’s borrowing rates in the markets sky-rocketed, with the ten-year yield spiking 0.34 percentage point to 7.30 percent _ above the 7 percent threshold that is widely-considered unsustainable in the long-run and eventually proved the point at which Greece, Ireland and Portugal had to seek financial bailouts.

The renewed rise is likely to renew tensions over Italy’s debts, which stand at euro1.9 trillion ($2.6 trillion), or a huge 120 percent of economic output. Europe’s current anti-crisis measures are too not big enough to deal with Italy’s debt mountain.

Source

Asian stock markets edged higher Thursday as speculation that China might ease its monetary policy soothed fears that the German economy _ Europe’s strongest _ may be succumbing to the continent’s debt crisis.

Benchmark oil hovered above $96 per barrel while the dollar fell against the euro and the yen.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng posted a 0.5 percent gain at 17,944.72. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.4 percent to 1,790.29 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained marginally to 4,052.30. Benchmarks in Singapore and Taiwan also rose.

Japan’s Nikkei 225, reopening after a one-day public holiday, fell 1.3 percent to 8,208.47. Shares in India, Malaysia and Indonesia also fell.

Speculation that China’s central bank was aiming to ease its tight monetary policy helped spur a wave of buying in Hong Kong, analysts said. But the official Xinhua News Agency said Thursday the move _ lowering reserve requirements for six rural banks in eastern Zhejiang _ was administrative rather a policy shift. The banks’ reserve requirements had been raised a year earlier after they failed to lend enough to farming businesses.

There have been signs that China’s campaign of interest rate hikes and credit controls to tame stubbornly high inflation has been working, giving it leeway to ease monetary policy as the world economy stumbles.

“The positive catalyst today is the expectation that the China tightening cycle might loosen,” said Jackson Wong, vice president at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong.

The chatter helped push up Chinese banking shares. Hong Kong-listed Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. jumped 3.3 percent and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country’s biggest commercial lender, rose 1.9 percent.

Global markets were spooked Wednesday by the poor results at an auction of German debt, which met with only 60 percent demand. Germany’s Financial Agency blamed “the extraordinarily nervous market environment payday loans.”

The weak buying suggests that Europe’s crisis might be infecting strong nations that are crucial to keeping the euro currency afloat. Germany bears much of the burden of bailing out weaker neighbors such as Greece and Portugal.

Analysts at Credit Agricole CIB said the European debt crisis remains “the major concern for the markets” and that the German debt auction signals the spread of “the contagion to hard core economies” in the region.

Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain rose from levels that already were considered dangerously high. Europe lacks the resources to bail out those countries, its third- and fourth-biggest economies.

In the U.S., the government released a mixed batch of economic reports. Slightly more people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that layoffs continue.

Consumer spending was sluggish but incomes rose a bit more than expected. Orders for long-lasting manufactured products fell for a second month and business investment dropped off.

The Dow fell 2.1 percent to close at 11,257.55. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 2.2 percent to 1,161.79. The Nasdaq fell 2.4 percent to 2,460.08.

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will have shortened hours on Friday.

Benchmark crude for January delivery was up 4 cents at $96.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $1.84 to settle at $96.17 in New York on Wednesday.

In currency trading, the euro rose to $1.3379 from $1.3326 late Wednesday in New York. The dollar dropped to 77.07 yen from 77.35 yen.

Source

O’FALLON, ILL. 

The Treasury Department has raised $12.2 million from the sale of warrants of 17 banks that received government support during the financial crisis. The sales are part of the government’s efforts to recoup the costs of the $700 billion financial bailout.

The Treasury said Friday that the largest amount raised in gross proceeds was $2.79 million from the sale of warrants of Eagle Bancorp Inc. of Bethesda, Maryland, followed by $1.75 million from warrants of Horizon Bancorp of Michigan City, Ind.

The warrants give buyers the right to buy common stock at a fixed price. Treasury is using direct sales of the warrants to institutional investors because the holdings were judged too small to justify the cost of holding public auctions.

The 17 banks received approximately $1 billion in support from the Troubled Asset Relief Program in 2008 and 2009. All 17 have repaid the money and the warrants represent their last link to the TARP program.

Banks, other financial firms and U.S. carmakers received $413.4 billion from the taxpayer-funded bailout. So far, the government has recovered $317.6 billion. Of that amount, $9.1 billion has come through the sale of warrants.

Source

Synergetics USA Inc. expects to report growth in sales and net income for the first quarter of fiscal 2012, company officials told the Securities and Exchange Commission in a filing today.

The O’Fallon, Mo.-based maker of equipment for eye and brain surgeries, expects revenue of $13.3 million to $13.6 million in the first fiscal quarter, which ended Oct. 31. That represents a 10 percent to 13 percent increase in revenue compared to a year ago. 

Based on increased sales, the company expects to report earnings from continuing operations of 4 cents to 5 cents a share for the first fiscal quarter, and to report a 1 cent to 2 cent per share loss from discontinued operations.

Source

Italian easily raised euro3 billion ($4.1 billion) from markets, though at a higher cost, as premier-designate Mario Monti began talks on forming a new government of experts to guide the country through financial crisis.

While the treasury raised the maximum sought, market sentiment remained cautious. Investors demanded an interest rate of 6.29 percent on Monday, the highest level since 1997, compared with 5.32 percent at a similar auction a month ago.

Italian president Giorgio Napolitano tapped Monti to create a government of technocrats to bring down stubbornly high public debt.

Napolitano emphasized that euro200 billion ($273 billion) in Italian debt comes due through the end of April _ requiring decisive action.

Source